Decision-making help, Part 2

Last week I wrote about how bias can negatively influence your decision-making.

Here are a few more examples of different problems and how we deal with them when acting on our biases:

You are short on time.  Often the mere time constraint can make us freeze.  Therefore, we need to feel overconfident to make the decision and then we can decide.  One of these types of bias is the optimism bias, another is the infamous Dunning-Kruger effect.  

Another thing we do is to focus on the most urgent issue in front of us to the detriment of looking into the future for the more important and urgent things; this can also be seen as focusing on the next new “shiny object” rather than the difficult issue that is more future-oriented (appeal to novelty effect).  

We all hate loss so we often focus what we have already invested in to the detriment of something new that might be very beneficial to focus on (look at zero-risk bias and loss aversion).  

Due to loss aversion and our hating to make mistakes, we want autonomy (individual and group/team) and we want to keep our options as open as much as possible (better the bad thing you know rather than the scary thing you don’t know)- see system justification and a few other biases like Maslow’s hammer.

Then we all like to have the easy answer and avoid complex and ambiguous answers (ambiguity bias and information bias).

Then there is the issue of what exactly to focus on and remember. Our brains can only remember so much.We prefer to reduce information to simple things and over-generalize and pick out anecdotal information to remember because it’s “easier”.  Thus, we edit and reinforce certain incidents/memories and details can get changed or blurred (and become inaccurate, and one of the biases in this category is called false memory).

Another related way to be biased is to discard the specifics of an incident and form generalities, which is necessary for our memories but has great impact on our prejudices (stereotypical bias). 

We remember the memory differently than it really was because how we “coded” the information – then it can be used to make inaccurate decisions because it was not remembered correctly (see levels of processing effect among many others).

To summarize:

·      Information is complex and “too much”. But we don’t (and can’t see everything.

·      The world and the meaning we crave in our life are also complex so we “make that fit”, too and thus this search for meaning can cause illusions and unrealities.

·      The tyranny of the urgent takes precedence over the important because perceived of time limitations.  Remember a quick decision can be very flawed and because we have invested “time/money/effort” in it we may find it hard to give it up, even if it’s a bad decision.

·      It isn’t easy to remember so we simplify and categorize the information to fit our “world view and categories” and thus reinforces errors and biases.

I want to finish with a list of DOs in your decision-making that will help you to avoid too many mistakes regarding unconscious bias.

DO:

1.     Pay attention to the new information you receive and don’t discount it - and try to take it in from different (if possible, independent or “neutral”) sources, or at least sources you would suppose do not support your own biases.  

2.     Pay attention to how you decide things, your “whys”.  For small decisions like where to eat out and what movie to watch this is not necessary- we have our own preferences for a reason.  For other decisions, watch yourself and your team and ask, “why” as often as possible.

3.     For decisions regarding your safety, the safety of your company or team, or moving forward with change, know your biases, and check out if you can help others who are in the decision-making process focus on theirs.

4.     Ask yourself if you have remembered the situation/incident/piece of information correctly.  It could be that you have remembered it all wrong. Get other people to tell you their memory of the incident(s).

5.     Take your time and ask for help (from a coach or supervisor, for example), if necessary.

6.     Ask yourself, “Am I ignoring the difficult thing and focusing on my new fun project at the expense of the team/the company, etc?” and “Where might my own prejudices be coming into play, here?”

7.     Finally, ask yourself, “Am I looking for confirmation of my biases?” (the “mother” bias of them all)?

These suggestions are just a few ways to avoid bias, but, of course, there have been many books and articles written about bias and the (negative) effects of using them, especially in decision-making.  We are all biased and it’s best to recognize the fact and then find our own and be very sensitive and careful when making major decisions.

Have a great week, biased or not.

Patricia Jehle                           patricia@jehle-coaching.com